Melissa forecast to blast Jamaica for days as a major hurricane

KINGSTON, Jamaica - Millions of people in Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic are preparing for flooding rain and high winds as Tropical Storm Melissa, which is now forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane, meanders in the central Caribbean.

Jamaica's government issued a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning on Thursday morning, as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned of possible life-threatening flash flooding on the island nation due to heavy rain expected from Melissa. Similar alerts have been issued for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, including Port-au-Prince.

The NHC said Melissa is expected to begin intensifying soon. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said Thursday that this could be a catastrophic situation for the Caribbean.

"This has the earmarks of an extreme event for Jamaica, the southern parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, eastern Cuba and possibly the southeastern Bahamas, including the Turks and Caicos," Norcross warned.  "Everybody there should stay well-informed and be prepared to take quick action."

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Tropical Storm Melissa, which had been dubbed Invest 98L, formed on Tuesday. And while the organizing storm system is currently maintaining its strength, forecasters with the NHC said Melissa could become a hurricane by Saturday and intensify into a Category 4 hurricane with 130-mph winds as early as Sunday night.

The NHC said that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Jamaica and Haiti starting on Saturday.

"Unfortunately, it is becoming increasingly likely that Melissa will become a large and dangerous hurricane by the end of the forecast period," the NHC said. 

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Jamaica gets ready for future Hurricane Melissa

The government of Jamaica said Thursday that it activated the country's emergency operation center and emergency generators, medical supplies and fuel are in place ahead of the storm.

Officials said they would likely close the country's airports as soon as a hurricane warning is issued. In addition, all schools are going to remote learning.

The Jamaica Met Service noted Thursday that soils are saturated from prior rain events, which could lead to mudslides as heavy rain from Melissa moves over the area.

On Wednesday, government officials advised residents to prepare for expected impacts from future Hurricane Melissa, warning boaters to return to port and residents to prepare for flooding.

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According to the FOX Forecast Center, some places in Jamaica could receive more than 2 feet of rain through next Wednesday, as Melissa meanders and intensifies in the Caribbean Sea.

In the Dominican Republic, officials said they had suspended work from 1 p.m. local time Wednesday through Thursday in major cities across the region, including Santo Domingo.

Where is Tropical Storm Melissa?

Tropical Storm Melissa is currently located about 270 miles to the southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and about 150 miles to the southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, according to the latest information from the NHC.

Melissa has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph with some higher gusts, and was "nearly stationary," according to the NHC Friday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend 140 miles from the storm's center. 

The NHC said that slow movement is expected to the north and northeast is expected later Friday. The storm is then forecast to move west beginning Saturday, with the center of the storm south of Jamaica as it rapidly intensifies.  

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"From Sunday until Tuesday, a strong Hurricane Melissa looks likely to be in the vicinity of Jamaica," Norcross said. "This could be an extreme situation with relentless torrential rain and strong wind impacting the island."

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The NHC said 8-14 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, could fall in southern areas of the Dominican Republic, southern Haiti and eastern Jamaica just through Sunday, then depending on where Melissa tracks, its strength and how fast it moves, localized areas could potentially see several feet of rain into early next week.

That heavy rain is also raising fears of significant flash flooding, mudslides and landslides in areas of higher terrain.

Puerto Rico will remain on the periphery of the storm’s influence but will likely experience a steady flow of moisture rotating into Melissa. Residents should monitor flood alerts issued by the National Weather Service in San Juan.

Swells generated by Tropical Storm Melissa will also spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern Cuba over the next few days, leading to large waves and rip currents at local beaches.

Where is Tropical Storm Melissa going?

Computer forecast models have come into better agreement that Tropical Storm Melissa will track south of Jamaica and Haiti, with those countries being on the strong side of the storm for several days as Melissa potentially rapidly intensifies into a hurricane.

From there, most models have Tropical Storm Melissa making a turn to the north, some over Jamaica and Cuba, and others have the storm moving northward closer to Hispaniola before tracking out to sea.

If the storm becomes a major hurricane while it sits over the Caribbean, that could lead to additional catastrophic impacts.

"Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in Jamaica by Friday or Saturday," the NHC warned. 

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