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'Super' El Niño expected to hit this winter
The Climate Prediction Center is expecting a strong El Niño climate pattern this winter, bringing warmer-than-usual ocean temperatures and lasting impacts around the world.
SEATTLE - The Climate Prediction Center released its September outlook report, showing that El Niño is strengthening, which will impact weather patterns around the world.
In an interview on Seattle News Tonight, FOX 13 Seattle Meteorologist Ilona McCauley spoke with Dr. Michael McPhaden, senior research oceanographer at the University of Washington, about the potential impacts if this El Niño strengthens into a Super El Niño.
What is an El Niño?
El Niño is part of a naturally occurring climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. During an El Niño phase, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer than average. That added heat in the ocean influences atmospheric patterns around the globe.
We often see shifts in storm tracks, changes in temperature patterns and an increased likelihood of extreme weather events, from droughts to heavy rainfall, depending on location.
Why you should care:
What an El Niño winter means for the Pacific Northwest is typically warmer-than-average temperatures and lower overall precipitation – often translating to less mountain snowpack compared to a wetter, colder La Niña winter. However, these are general baseline trends that are not always guaranteed, due to the dynamic nature of local weather.
What is the likelihood of a Super El Niño?
What they're saying:
With a possible Super El Niño developing, Dr. McPhaden said it will have lasting impacts and will definitely be historic. He added that in the last 150 years of measuring water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, we have not seen anything like this before.
"There have been, what you would call, ‘extreme El Niños’ in the past – three in the last 50 years, in fact – but this El Niño is outstripping them all," said Dr. McPhaden. "And none of them have achieved – or will achieve by the end of the calendar year, which will be the end of the season when El Niño typically peaks in the tropical Pacific – none of them will have achieved the amplitude that we’re seeing with this event based on the forecast models. Now those models are not perfect, but they are very confident, and there are many of them all pointing in the same direction."
McPhaden said that El Niño is already having impacts around the world. He noted that Indonesia and the Panama Canal are currently experiencing severe droughts. Fewer ships are passing through the Panama Canal because the rain band that typically sits over Panama has moved closer to the equator, causing lower water levels in the freshwater lakes that feed the canal.
What would a Super El Niño look like in WA?
Local perspective:
"In the Pacific Northwest, our winters are typically warm by a few degrees," said McPhaden. "It doesn’t sound like a lot, but what this means is that precipitation will fall mainly as rainfall in the higher elevations rather than snow. And this creates a potential for winter and spring flooding in the lowlands because of early runoff. It also means that snowpack will be lowered because less precipitation is falling as snow in the mountains. This has real impacts for power generation, irrigation, healthy salmon runs, and the availability of municipal drinking water."
McPhaden also pointed out how 2026 has already been a warm and dry year, and Washington state has declared a drought emergency for four consecutive years now. This means the starting point is one that's already stressed in terms of fresh water in the state.
The benefits of an El Niño: No hurricanes in the Atlantic this year
While the general impression is that El Niño is bad news in a lot of places, some areas really benefit from this.
"Along the East Coast of the U.S. and in the Gulf states, you know, they’re celebrating. This is one of the quietest hurricane seasons on record. In fact, there have been no hurricanes this year in the Atlantic Ocean, and we are quickly approaching the peak of the hurricane season."
McPhaden added that the latest a hurricane has ever formed in the tropical Atlantic is September 11. This has happened twice, but there are no hurricanes in the forecast.
"This is all because of El Niño. El Niño suppresses the formation of hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic because it induces a very strong wind shear – that is, a change of wind velocity with height – which disrupts the formation of storms and affects their ability to maintain their strength. So, the East Coast is celebrating the fact that there have been no really strong tropical storms this season, and there may not be for a while."
The Source: Information in this story comes from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, original reporting by FOX 13 Seattle Chief Meteorologist Brian MacMillan, and an interview on Seattle News Tonight between FOX 13 Seattle Meteorologist Ilona McCauley and Dr. Michael McPhaden, senior research oceanographer at the University of Washington.
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