How this small WA county has accurately predicted 11 presidential elections

CLALLAM COUNTY, Wash. - Known for its stunning landscapes and tight-knit community, Clallam County has carved out a unique position as a bellwether in U.S. presidential elections.

Out of 3,142 counties across the United States, Clallam County remains unmatched, backing the victorious candidate in every presidential election since 1980—a remarkable 11-election streak.

Clallam’s track record goes beyond the past four decades. The county has supported the eventual presidential winner in 24 of the past 26 elections and 29 of the last 33.

Since 1896, Clallam voters have chosen the winner 29 times, favoring Republicans in 20 elections and Democrats in 13.

The only misses came nearly 50 years ago, in 1976, when Clallam County voted for Republican Gerald Ford, as Jimmy Carter ultimately claimed the presidency. A previous discrepancy occurred in 1968, when the county backed Democrat Hubert Humphrey over the victorious Richard Nixon.

Despite these few exceptions, Clallam’s consistent support of the national winner remains a significant historical achievement.

In the 2020 election, Clallam County stood out once again, breaking ranks with other traditional bellwether counties. Of the 19 bellwether counties still standing before that election, 18 sided with Donald Trump. Clallam alone backed President Joe Biden, maintaining its unparalleled bellwether status.

Clallam's winning streak in accurately predicting the country’s next president is gaining this small region in northwestern Washington a lot of attention.

Mark Abshire, Director of the Port Angeles Chamber of Commerce, explains that Clallam’s geography and lifestyle influence its residents’ independent approach to politics.

"People come here on purpose," said Abshire. "We’re out of the way, surrounded by mountains and ocean. People that live here are generally independently minded, making their own choices on candidates rather than following strict party lines." 

Beth Pratt, Executive Director of the Sequim-Dungeness Valley Chamber of Commerce, describes it as "a special place where we live on purpose." The county’s stunning landscapes—featuring lush forests and coastal views—attract visitors to towns like Forks, Port Angeles, and Sequim.

"We do, really do have an intermix of Trump sign in the yard, a Harris sign in the neighbor's yard, and we all respect each other's opinions," said Abshire.

This politically competitive "purple county" is one of the few to transition smoothly between supporting Republican and Democratic candidates, and can be a strong indicator of the U.S. electorate. Though it has a large white and older population, Clallam’s demographics reflect diverse views, with retirees in sunny Sequim on the eastern side, loggers and fishers in the west, and Port Angeles as a tourism and outdoor hub.

Though lacking the demographic diversity of urban areas, Clallam is home to an active Native American community and a growing Hispanic and Latino population.

"It’s incredible," Abshire said. "We just know how to pick a winner here in Clallam County, and I’m really hoping we do the same again next week."

"I think it's the diversity of the county that continues to represent the demographics of America on a small scale," Pratt said.

As attention turns to the upcoming election, Clallam County’s tradition of accurately predicting national results is both a point of pride and a bit of a secret. They do anticipate split ballots, a testament to the community’s balance and independence. Above all, they emphasize the importance of community and mutual respect, regardless of how each person votes.

Clallam’s Winning Record 

A breakdown of the county’s voting history over recent decades shows its unique position:

• 2020: (D) Joe Biden
• 2016: (R) Donald Trump
• 2012: (D) Barack Obama
• 2008: (D) Barack Obama
• 2004: (R) George W. Bush
• 2000: (R) George W. Bush
• 1996: (D) Bill Clinton
• 1992: (D) Bill Clinton
• 1988: (R) George H.W. Bush
• 1984: (R) Ronald Reagan
• 1980: (R) Ronald Reagan

Clallam County Presidential Election Results (*: losing candidate)

• *1976: (R) Gerald Ford (Jimmy Carter)
• 1972: (R) Richard Nixon
• *1968: (D) Hubert Humphrey (Richard Nixon)
• 1964: (D) Lyndon Johnson
• 1960: (D) John F. Kennedy
• 1956: (R) Dwight Eisenhower
• 1952: (R) Dwight Eisenhower
• 1948: (D) Harry Truman
• 1944: (D) Franklin Roosevelt
• 1940: (D) Franklin Roosevelt
• 1936: (D) Franklin Roosevelt
• 1932: (D) Franklin Roosevelt
• 1928: (R) Herbert Hoover
• 1924: (R) Calvin Coolidge
• 1920: (R) Warren Harding
• *1916: (R) Charles Hughes (Woodrow Wilson)
• *1912: (R) William Taft (Woodrow Wilson)
• 1908: (R) William Taft
• 1904: (R) Theodore Roosevelt
• 1900: (R) William McKinley
• 1896: (R) William McKinley
• *1892: (R) Benjamin Harrison (Grover Cleveland)

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