Seattle's housing market crisis unlikely to ease from 'silver tsunami'
SEATTLE - The anticipated "silver tsunami" of homes from older, downsizing owners is unlikely to bring relief to Seattle's housing affordability crisis, according to new research from Zillow.
While the nation's empty-nester households represent a significant share of the potential housing supply, these homes are primarily located in more affordable markets far from Seattle, where housing shortages are most severe.
The study reveals that in 2022, approximately 20.9 million empty-nest households existed nationwide. These homes, owned by residents over 55 who have lived there for more than a decade and have at least two extra bedrooms, far outnumber the 8.1 million families likely in need of their own space. However, the geographic mismatch limits the potential impact on high-demand markets like Seattle.
"Even if we did see a 'silver tsunami,' a look at the map tells me it wouldn't really move the needle in terms of solving our housing affordability crunch," said Orphe Divounguy, Zillow senior economist. "These empty-nest households are concentrated in more affordable markets, where housing is already more accessible — not in the expensive coastal job centers where young workers are moving and where more homes are most desperately needed."
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Limited relief for Seattle
Seattle ranks among the nation's most expensive metro areas, with a median home value of $739,858, according to Zillow's October 2024 Home Value Index.
Millennials and Gen Z professionals continue to flock to the city for its booming tech industry and career opportunities, with 30% of recent movers under age 44. However, only 13% of Seattle households are classified as empty nesters, below the national average of 16%.
"Metros with some of the largest shares of millennials and Gen Zers moving in are among the nation's most expensive," the report said.
This dynamic exacerbates the existing housing affordability challenge. While cities like Pittsburgh and Buffalo have large shares of empty-nest homes in accessible markets, Seattle faces a chronic supply shortage worsened by restrictive land-use policies and soaring demand.
Does the real solution lie in new construction?
Zillow's research underscores the need for increased housing development in high-cost cities. Adding density, reducing regulatory barriers and expanding financial assistance programs could provide more significant affordability gains than waiting for generational turnover.
For now, the "silver tsunami" may offer little reprieve for young Seattle professionals and families navigating one of the nation's most challenging housing markets.
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