Flawed data in Seattle's ‘LEAD’ diversion program prompts calls for audit

SEATTLE - A diversion program that originated in Seattle and replicated across the country is coming under fire, with allegations that its foundational metric is false.

Eric Zimmerman with the Washington Policy Center says his research shows the core data behind the Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEAD) program is flawed.

LEAD is a pre-booking alternative to jail for individuals using drugs, allowing officers to divert low-level offenders directly into community-based support services. Over the last decade, the model expanded to roughly 40–60 jurisdictions across 20 states, eventually written into federal law, securing hundreds of millions of dollars in federal appropriations and grants.

However, Zimmerman claims the centerpiece statistic used to justify this nationwide expansion — a widely cited 58% reduction in arrests — is inaccurate.

Fatal misunderstanding behind LEAD program

Zimmerman says LEAD advocates and local governments, like the Seattle City Council and members of Congress, have pointed to an initial evaluation conducted by the University of Washington showing a 58% drop in arrests or re-offending among participants compared to a control group.

According to Zimmerman, that headline figure was pulled out of context from a complex, technical statistical model used in the original UW evaluation.

"I looked at that number, specifically, and that's an example of a number that's just not factual," Zimmerman said. "Arguably, maybe it's as high as 20%, but more likely it's closer to zero, and it was a misunderstanding."

Zimmerman argues the original UW research showed no statistically significant difference between LEAD participants and control groups regarding street arrests. He asserts that minor differences in felony arrest data were likely influenced by outside factors, such as prosecutor discretion and shifting police enforcement tactics.

The issue, Zimmerman noted, stems from an initial mistranslation in early press releases that went uncorrected for 11 years, eventually making its way into federal legislative testimony and policy creation.

Questioning LEAD program outcomes

Beyond arrest data, Zimmerman argues that other metrics promoted by LEAD's managing organization, the Public Defender Association (PDA), present a misleading picture of participant outcomes amid Seattle's ongoing fentanyl and homelessness crises.

"We've had the most growth in the country in terms of drug overdose deaths. That's really been driven by Seattle," Zimmerman said.

Also mostly driven by Seattle and King County is the large surge in chronic homelessness.

"That number has grown 850% over a 10 year period and the next closest major metro area is 530%," Zimmerman said.

• Employment claims: Advocates previously cited a 46% increase in participation along an "employment continuum." Zimmerman notes that in the initial study, that percentage translated to just three out of 163 unemployed participants securing jobs.
• Housing attainment: Current 2026 data indicates roughly 38% of LEAD participants obtain temporary shelter or housing, leaving a majority of enrollees unhoused.
• Replication gaps: Subsequent evaluations in other states, such as North Carolina, failed to replicate Seattle's claims, showing no drop in re-offending rates.

Zimmerman says the issue boils down to whether a program changes behavior.

"If you're in crisis, you enter LEAD. Is that crisis resolved?" Zimmerman asked. "It's difficult to look to either LEAD's research or LEAD's results today and say people are genuinely getting the help they need."

Calls for an Official Accounting

Zimmerman says every jurisdiction that funds LEAD should do an independent review of the programs moving forward.

The policy researcher argues that participants in LEAD, along with taxpayers, deserve transparent metrics to be published by LEAD on a consistent basis.

The other side:

The founder of LEAD, Lisa Daugaard, acknowledging the 58% reduction in arrests is not accurate but defended LEAD.

"From our point of view, the only well-taken point in the WPC memo is that 58% reduced odds of arrest is indeed different from 58% reduction in arrests--but it's a distinction without a policy difference, as 58% reduced odds of arrest compared to a robust control group reflect a meaningful downward impact on recidivism," Daugaard said.

Daugaard still contends that without LEAD there would be more recidivism.

"LEAD has continued, grown, and been replicated in far-flung communities around the nation, from Picuris Pueblo NM, to Eugene OR, to Allegheny County PA, to Kansas City, to Los Angeles, to sites across North Carolina, not because the 58% reduction was occasionally misstated in lay terms, but because operational partners, including police, prosecutors, neighborhood leaders, businesses, other service providers, and participants themselves, have found it effective and helpful," Daugaard said.

She also points out that some of Zimmerman’s research is not correct including the one about housing.

"Fully 71% (not 35%) of those unsheltered at entry obtained shelter during the study period," Daugaard said.

University of Washington responds to LEAD controversy

"One point in the Brief is well-taken and is being corrected. In an early summary and Aim 3 reporting, we used the word ‘likelihood’ in place of ‘odds.’ Translating odds ratios into plain language, especially for lay materials, is a recognized difficulty. These have been corrected where we find them, and we have advised the LEAD team to correct their reporting as well. Although we were not responsible for additional reporting and were not typically consulted on how the program evaluation was discussed, we are happy to help correct the record."

UW’s response to the allegations is 11 pages long where they break down their initial study, mostly defending their evaluation of LEAD. UW took aim at Zimmerman’s research combatting specific allegations that can be viewed here:

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