Seattle Mariners' playoff scenarios: Where they stand in AL West, Wild Card race

SEATTLE - The Seattle Mariners are tied with the Houston Astros for the AL West lead with a pivotal three-game series between the two teams set to begin Friday night at Daikin Park.

With the American League incredibly tight across all three divisions with just over a week left to play in the regular season, almost every possibility remains on the table for the Mariners. They could earn a first-round bye as a top-two seed in the AL, lose out to the Astros for the division and make the playoffs as a Wild Card instead, or completely collapse and miss the playoffs altogether.

The picture will become much clearer after the three-game series with the Astros. The reality is the Mariners will almost certainly be in the playoffs in some way; It's just a matter of how and where they'll be playing once they do officially get in the field.

Here's a closer look at what remains on the table for the Mariners ahead of their biggest regular season road series in a long, long time.

Path to the AL West crown

The Mariners have not won the American League West since their record-setting 116-win season of 2001. But with nine games remaining in the 2025 regular season, the Mariners have a legitimate chance to win the division.

Seattle and Houston have split the first 10 games of the season series this year, setting up the three-game series this weekend as the determining factor for any tiebreaks between the two squads. While winning two of three games in the series would put the victor up one game in the standings, the real margin would be effectively two games as the winner would own the tiebreaker as well.

After the Houston series, the Mariners return home to face a dreadful Colorado Rockies team before a three-game set with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who could theoretically have their postseason spot solidified by the final weekend.

A division title would clinch a top-three seed in the league, with the top two teams in the AL earning first-round byes. Seattle (and Houston) currently sits just one game behind the Detroit Tigers for the No. 2 seed in the AL. The Mariners also own the tiebreaker against the Tigers by winning four of six games against Detroit this season.

While Seattle will then play the Rockies in their penultimate series, the Astros will have to face the Athletics, who have played well after the All-Star break and have beat Houston in six of their ten games this season.

Whichever team wins the series this weekend will be in the driver's seat for the division title, home field advantage, and a possible first-round bye.

Path to the AL Wild Card

If the Mariners lose the series in Houston, the potential of being a Wild Card team becomes far more likely.

And in the Wild Card race, all options remain on the board as well. Seattle (and Houston) is two games back of the New York Yankees for the top Wild Card spot, while holding a one-game edge on the Boston Red Sox in the third Wild Card spot.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians – who have won their last seven games – are 1.5 games back of the Red Sox for the final Wild Card spot. The only other team that realistically could still be a factor in the Wild Card race is the Texas Rangers, who are five games back of the AL West leaders after an Astros sweep this week, and four games behind Boston for the final Wild Card spot.

For the Wild Card round of the playoffs, the top Wild Card would have home field advantage for the three-game series with the No. 2 Wild Card team, while the No. 3 Wild Card team will face the one division winner that is unable to secure a bye.

If Cleveland and Texas can't run down a playoff spot, the playoff field will consist of the Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, and Seattle Mariners, in some order.

The Blue Jays – with a five-game lead over the rest of the AL – are the likely No. 1 seed and will receive one of the two first-round byes. The Tigers, Astros or Mariners will earn the No. 2 seed and the other first-round bye, with the loser of the AL West bumped into a Wild Card spot.

The bottom two Wild Card teams will not have any home games unless they advance to the AL Division series, like the Mariners did in 2022 with a Wild Card triumph over the Blue Jays in Toronto.

Path to no postseason at all

It would take a monumental collapse for the Mariners, but it IS still possible.

If the Cleveland Guardians continue their hot streak, they could run down the Mariners for a playoff spot, especially if the Astros sweep Seattle this weekend.

But even if that happens, the Mariners will have a chance to rebound against the awful Rockies, and Seattle also holds the tiebreaker with the Guardians should it come down to that. The Mariners also hold the tiebreaker over the Rangers if they rebound from the Houston sweep for a last-minute playoff push.

The Guardians are also set to play Detroit and Texas in the final week, which could blunt the impact of any short-term Mariners skid as well as the teams cannibalize wins against each other.

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